Millionaire investors are predicting that stocks will fall in 2023 — and substantially. According to the CNBC Millionaire Survey, which consulted investors with $1 million or more in investable assets, 56% of millionaire investors anticipate that the S&P 500 will decline by 10% in the new year and nearly a third anticipate slippage of more than 15%.
Millionaires haven’t been this bearish about the economy since 2008, during the height of the Great Recession. So what’s driving them to be so pessimistic?
Inflation has been unstoppable in 2022, and will continue to be a force to be reckoned with in 2023. Indeed inflation has been so untenable that it’s even got millionaires in a tizzy over whether they will have enough to retire.
Rising Interest Rates
On Dec. 14, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yet again by half a percentage point. Rising interest rates (along with inflation) have some millionaires delaying big purchases including homes and cars.
Fears over a long talked about recession are also at play. Typically when a recession is on the horizon, the stock market spirals, as it has been doing for much of 2022.
Interestingly, there does appear to be an optimism gap here, tied to age. In other words, younger people seem to have a rosier outlook on what the economy holds in 2023.
The CNBC survey found that 81% of millennial millionaires expect their assets to be greater at the end of next year, with nearly half (46%) anticipating their assets to be up 10% or more. Meanwhile, 61% of baby boomer millionaires expect their assets to be lower or “much lower” in 2023. Additionally, more than half of millennial millionaires said the S&P 500 will be up 10% or more in the new year.